On February 21, a reporter from the Securities Daily visited a cigarette hotel in Dongzhimen, Beijing. The staff of the hotel said that the price of many Maotai wines had risen in recent years. "The overall consumption situation is improving, and it is normal for the price of Maotai to rise accordingly."
The staff of the above-mentioned tobacco hotel said that the price of the 53-degree Feitian Moutai wine bottle sold by the hotel was 2900 yuan/bottle on February 21, and the price of the original box was 3200 yuan/bottle on the same day. "Prices have been rising recently, and they should rise in the future," said the staff member.
In addition to Feitian Moutai, the reporter learned that the prices of other Baijiu brands under Moutai, such as some Chinese zodiac wine and aged wine, also rose. The staff of another Maotai store introduced to the reporter of Securities Daily: "The Chinese zodiac Moutai even rose by 1000 yuan/bottle in one day."
The terminal price of many Maotai wines rose
In recent years, the price of most products of Moutai has ushered in a wave of "little spring".
According to the reporter, on February 21 alone, the price of the original box and the bulk bottle of the 53-degree flying Maotai in 2023 and 2022 increased by 10 yuan/bottle respectively; In terms of Maotai Chinese zodiac wine, the price of Chinese zodiac wine in the year of the rat and the year of the pig increased by 20 yuan/bottle; Among other series of products, such as high-quality Maotai, the price also increased by 20 yuan/bottle; What's more, "Ma Mao" soared 1000 yuan/bottle to 20800 yuan/bottle on February 20. "The price will probably rise again in the future," the staff of the Maotai store told Securities Daily.
Xiao Zhuqing, chairman of Wuhan Jingkui Technology Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily that "the supply of Maotai liquor production capacity is already limited. After the opening of the new year, the market demand has further increased, and the supply exceeds demand, leading to terminal price increases."
The reporter noted that among the many Moutai products, "Moutai 1935", relying on the recommendation of the sales terminal, is emerging and is expected to become another star product of Moutai.
"Moutai 1935 is a good product with a price of 1000 yuan." The staff of the above Moutai store said that once launched last year, the product won the favor of consumers.
It is reported that "Moutai 1935" was launched on January 18, 2022, and was regarded as a new "entrant" to seize the price belt of 1000 yuan for Baijiu. As of January 9, 2023, "Moutai 1935" has exceeded the sales threshold of 5 billion yuan.
The liquor industry has obvious inventory differentiation
In 2023, the sales of Baijiu will recover significantly. In terms of online channels, Wanlian Securities Research News shows that the online sales of alcohol on three e-commerce platforms, Taoxi, Jingdong and Pinduoduo, in January this year showed an overall warming trend compared with the end of last year. The online sales of Baijiu in January increased by 8.41% year on year, and the monthly sales reached a new high in two years.
The Report on the Status and Development of Liquor Merchants in 2022 shows that since 2019, the general inventory pressure of mainstream Baijiu brands has increased significantly. Among them, 33.6% of the liquor stores have been in existence for 3 to 5 months, and nearly 40% of the liquor stores have even been in inventory for more than 5 months. The cash flow pressure has increased significantly.
According to the 2022 performance forecast data released by A-share related listed companies, four of the eight listed liquor companies are expected to achieve performance growth last year, while the other four are expected to slightly reduce or lose. Among the listed liquor enterprises whose performance was expected to lose last year, most of them said that "the consumption scene of Baijiu was reduced, and the sales volume was reduced, resulting in a decline in the revenue of the year."
"At present, although consumer demand has recovered, the vast majority of liquor enterprises are still facing the pressure of high channel inventory and sluggish marketing." Cai Xuefei, an expert in Baijiu and general manager of Zhiqu Consulting, told the Securities Daily that the Baijiu industry will continue to differentiate. "The inventory of top famous wines may be digested in the first half of the year and enter a real growth period in the second half of the year; while the inventory of some non-famous wines or regional liquor enterprises may take longer to digest due to the overlapping of new and old inventories. On the whole, the de-stocking of the industry may continue until the end of this year."
With regard to inventory, Everbright Securities Research believes that liquor enterprises will basically enter the stage of grasping sales and stabilizing market order in February this year. On the whole, the inventory differentiation caused by the strength of Baijiu brands is relatively obvious.
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